Grey Cup Contenders 2017
What do the Canadian Football League and National Basketball Association have in common?
- All of this is why the 2017 live application of “Ultraviolet” to women of power in current and past history just did not fit, did not work. It’s a dark and disturbed song that can’t just.
- Making the playoffs is probably a given. Winning the 2018 Grey Cup could be a whole other story. 2018 Top Contenders to Win the Grey Cup. Next on the list at 5Dimes is the Edmonton Eskimos at +675. They went from winning ten games in 2016 to a 12-6 record in 2017 to earn the third seed in the West behind Calgary and Winnipeg.
- There’s also international football betting ahead of Euro 2020 and World Cup 2022, along with the UEFA Nations League – check out the latest odds and the ante-post markets in our football section.
The 21-year-old former G1 July Cup winner was fast out of the gate with his first crop and soon established himself as a world-class sire, with the likes of Midday (GB), Muhaarar (GB) and Power.
Definitely not the salaries. The $17 million per year that bench player Tim Hardaway Jr. just got from the Knicks is more than the total salary cap of 3 CFL teams combined.
There is one trait that the two leagues do share, however: dominant teams in the West. Just like the balance of power in the NBA has been severely tilted to the left side of the continent ever since Michael Jordan’s (second) retirement in 1999, the CFL’s West Division has regularly housed the league’s top teams over the last 6 years.
That trend has continued through 4 weeks of the 2017 CFL season. Teams in the West are a combined 11-5-1, with just 1 of 5 teams under .500. Meanwhile, a 2-2 record is enough to hold the lead in the East, whose squads have a combined record of 4-10-1.
Let’s take a look at the updated Grey Cup odds through the first month of the 2017 season.
Updated 2017 Grey Cup odds
West Division teams accounted for the top 3 Grey Cup favorites going into the campaign, and nothing has changed in that regard.
In fact, the odds on the Calgary Stampeders and Edmonton Eskimos have only grown shorter through 4 weeks, the British Columbia Lions have held steady at their +500 price and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers have seen their odds slightly improve to the point where they are now tied with the Montreal Alouettes for fourth on the Grey Cup rankings.
But while the West has basically remained status quo, the East is a bizarro world. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Ottawa RedBlacks were the division’s top 2 Grey Cup contenders going into the season, but are a combined 0-6-1 through 4 weeks of action. While the title odds on Hamilton and Ottawa have soared, the Alouettes and Toronto Argonauts are off to surprising 2-2 starts and have overtaken their rivals on the updated Grey Cup odds.
Here’s the 2017 Grey Cup odds after Week 4, courtesy of Bovada as of 9/21/17 (with each team’s preseason odds in parentheses):
- Calgary Stampeders +200 (were +350)
- Edmonton Eskimos +450 (were +500)
- British Columbia Lions +650 (were +500)
- Winnipeg Blue Bombers +450 (were +800)
- Toronto Argonauts +1000 (were +1200)
- Saskatchewan Roughriders +900 (were +800)
- Ottawa Redblacks +900
- Montreal Alouettes +1600
- Hamilton Tiger-Cats +5000
The Favorites
Calgary
The Stampeders still carry the favorite’s mantle despite not bearing much resemblance to the team that toyed with the CFL last year. After threatening to tie the single-season record for wins in 2016 and finishing with a 15-2-1 mark, Calgary is just 2-1-1 out of the gate and has surrendered nearly 30 points per game.
I’m still not that concerned. An early-season hangover from last year’s disappointing loss in the Grey Cup to Ottawa is not a surprise, their defensive line has been decimated by injuries, and star running back Jerome Messam was ejected in the second quarter of their only loss this year.
With 23 players back from last season, including 8 of 9 all-stars, this team simply has too much talent not to get things together again soon. Calgary still leads the CFL in points per game on offense despite struggling in the red zone. Once the Stamps start scoring touchdowns instead of field goals and they get their defense healthy again, expect them to re-emerge as the class of the league.
Edmonton
Typically overshadowed by their provincial rivals (Edmonton and Calgary are separated by a 3-hour drive), the Eskimos are getting plenty of attention now as the only remaining unbeaten team in the league.
The key to Edmonton’s 3-0 start has been defense. The Esks rank first in the CFL in passing yards allowed and second in total yards, and Edmonton has held opponents to just 22.3 points per game. It’s early, but that’s a 4-point-per-game improvement from last year.
Still, we have to keep things in perspective. Following an impressive 30-27 win at B.C. to start the season, the Eskimos had to sweat out home victories against the Alouettes and RedBlacks, failing to cover the spread on both of those occasions. Edmonton’s offense ranks just sixth in the league in passing yards, total yards and points per game.
The Eskimos’ first-half schedule is very soft, so don’t be surprised to see Edmonton’s strong start continue. But we’ll get a much better picture of where the Eskies stand when they visit Calgary in early September.
British Columbia
After losing their season opener at home to Edmonton, the Lions have bounced back very nicely with 3 straight victories by a combined total of 35 points. Even more impressively, each of those wins came on the road, including a 41-26 rout of Hamilton when backup quarterback Travis Lulay went 29-for-36 for 436 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Defense was B.C.’s biggest question mark coming into the season as the Lions had to replace 6 starters from a unit that allowed the third-fewest points in the league last year. That defense hasn’t skipped a beat in 2017, allowing just 21.8 points per contest so far, though the 5.6 yards per carry it is allowing opposing running backs has to be a concern.
Like Edmonton, the Lions haven’t exactly faced the cream of the crop in the CFL. Their 3 opponents on that road trip were the Argos, Alouettes, and Ticats, who are a combined 4-7 on the year.
The Sleepers
Ottawa
Though a 0-3-1 start by the defending Grey Cup champions may look ugly on paper, there are actually a few reasons to be optimistic about the potential of the RedBlacks this season.
For one thing, Ottawa’s not exactly getting outclassed. The RedBlacks tied their season opener against a powerful Calgary team motivated to avenge last year’s Grey Cup, then lost by just 4 points in Calgary the following week. Ottawa’s other 2 losses came by 1 point to Toronto and 2 points at Edmonton.
2017 Contenders Football
Another positive is the play of quarterback Trevor Harris, who stepped into the starting role once again this year after 2016 Grey Cup Most Outstanding Player Henry Burris retired. Harris has completed 71.5% of his passes and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 8:2, leading the RedBlacks to the second-ranked offense in the league through 4 weeks.
Finally, being winless through 4 games doesn’t exactly spell doom and gloom in the East Division. Montreal and Toronto lead the division with 2-2 marks and it won’t take much for Ottawa to get back into playoff positioning, although they’ll likely need to finish in the top 2 since a West team will probably cross over to take the third available spot.
Hamilton
I have to admit, it’s much harder to sell the Ticats as a viable sleeper than it is the RedBlacks.
Hamilton has been outscored by an average of nearly 17 points per game. It has scored the least points in the league and allowed the most. Both its offense and defense rank dead last in the CFL in total yards. While the defensive issues have been mostly due to the passing game, Hamilton’s offense is second-last in both rushing and passing yards.
So why should we still believe at this point? Maybe because Hamilton has nowhere to go but up, and it still has the potential to do that. The Tiger-Cats defense should get a lot better once the team fully adjusts to its new coordinator, and Zach Collaros is capable of being the best QB in the division.
It’s telling that as bad as Hamilton has been, oddsmakers have still only dropped the Tabbies to +1000 to win the Grey Cup. As I said with Ottawa, it doesn’t take much to qualify for the playoffs in the East, and Hamilton could still be a very dangerous postseason opponent.
Prediction
I’m still convinced that the Stampeders are the team to beat in the CFL. They’ve won 14+ games in each of the last 4 years and I don’t think their veterans suddenly forgot how to play football.
It’s easy to overreact to a slow start (is 2-1-1 even that bad, especially when 2 of those games were against the defending champions?) and oddsmakers certainly haven’t, making Calgary even more of a favorite now than it was before the season began.
But just because the Stamps may be the best regular-season team in the CFL doesn’t make them a great Grey Cup bet. They’ve won just 1 Grey Cup since 2008, routinely spitting the bit in the playoffs, and the West is a minefield that will be awfully tough to navigate.
The best Grey Cup bets remain in the East, as far as I’m concerned. It’s a much easier road to get to the big game, and getting such long odds on teams like Ottawa and Hamilton will allow you to hedge at some point and still lock in a nice profit.
As breeding sheds prepare to swing open their doors in the coming weeks, we bring you the final installment of our 2021 Value Sires series. Gone are the days of dissecting sales averages and speculating on the comments of the judges; these elder statesmen have proven their mettle on the racecourse, and a few of them are even available at their lowest ever fees.
While value exists in all price brackets and for all budgets, we have chosen to limit the scope of this analysis to stallions standing in Europe for £/€20,000 and below, selecting two sires apiece that stand between 15,000 and 20,000; 10,000 and 12,500 and below 10,000. As we have covered in depth the sire crops up to those which have first-crop 3-year-olds this year, stallions highlighted here will be those with at least two crops of racing age fully behind them.
Selecting the final six was far from an easy exercise. There were many worthy candidates, and in addition to the raw data likes percentages of winners and stakes winners and overall career performances, other factors taken into consideration included price point and the current trajectory of the horse's career.
15,000 to 20,000
This price bracket must be one of the most intriguing of them all: it includes not only the ever-reliable Iffraaj (GB) and Nathaniel (Ire) at a career-low fees, but also the incredibly popular Dandy Man (Ire) and the rising talent Make Believe (GB). But two stallions stand out in this price range on both percent of stakes winners to runners and winners to runners: Oasis Dream (GB) (£20,000) and Mastercraftsman (Ire) (€15,000).
One would be hard-pressed to nominate a sire in this price range that has compiled a body of work over a career that compares with Oasis Dream's. The 21-year-old former G1 July Cup winner was fast out of the gate with his first crop and soon established himself as a world-class sire, with the likes of Midday (GB), Muhaarar (GB) and Power (GB) among his 17 Group 1 winners. The dark bay stood for up to £85,000 at Juddmonte's Banstead Manor Stud, and is this year down to a career-low £20,000. His 9.5% rate of stakes winners to runners puts Oasis Dream in a class with sires that stand for many multiples of his fee, and he likewise gets 66% winners/runners. The dip in his fee goes hand-in-hand with the reality that his numbers of stakes winners have leveled off in recent seasons, but an average of seven per season since 2016 is still nothing to scoff at, and he is still turning out Group 1 winners, with three of his 17 having come since 2016: Muarrab (GB) won the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen as a 7-year-old in 2016 while Pretty Pollyanna (GB) and Polydream (Ire) won the G1 Prix Morny and G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest, respectively, in 2018. Oasis Dream has sired 122 stakes winners and his daughters have produced 58 stakes winners and five Group 1 winners. He had a remarkable year in 2020 alone as a broodmare sire, with G1 Irish 2000 Guineas winner Siskin, G1 Melbourne Cup winner Twilight Payment (Ire), G1 Cox Plate scorer Sir Dragonet (Ire) and G1 Prix Saint-Alary victress Tawkeel (GB) on his honor roll in addition to standout juveniles Miss Amulet (Ire) and Chindit (Ire). A mark of his consistent brilliance is that Oasis Dream is still well-supported in the sales ring, too: his 29 yearlings sold in 2020 averaged €86,669/£76,604. It's hard to imagine a horse in Oasis Dream's price range with a better chance to get a breeder anything from a sales horse to a potential broodmare or a top-class runner.
The six years younger Mastercraftsman (Ire) is following a similar trajectory; in fact, he has an average of 9.6 stakes winners per crop, versus 8.7 for Oasis Dream. From eight crops of racing age, the grey has supplied 77 stakes winners (6.3% of starters) and he gets winners at a rate of 62.3% (of starters). Mastercraftsman has 15 Group 1 winners, just two off Oasis Dream, and he likewise gets them at the highest level: Alpha Centauri (Ire) was champion 3-year-old filly and won the Coronation S., Falmouth S., Irish 1000 Guineas and Prix Jacques le Marois; The Grey Gatsby (Ire) took the G1 Prix du Jockey Club and G1 Irish Champion S., and Amazing Maria (Ire) and A Raving Beauty (Ger) each won a pair of Grade/Group 1s apiece. Mastercraftsman's 2021 fee of €15,000 is his lowest since 2013, and his crop bred off the back of Alpha Centauri's championship season will be 3-year-olds when his 2022 crop are going to the yearling sales.
10,000 to 12,500
There are plenty of horses in this price range across Britain, Ireland and France that offer eye-catching stats-with Coolmore stalwart Footstepsinthesand (GB) and French up-and-comer Galiway (GB) certainly among them-and once again we landed at Coolmore and Juddmonte for our top two choices: Bated Breath (GB) (£12,500) and Holy Roman Emperor (Ire) (€12,500).
A Group 2-winning sprinter for Roger Charlton who was second in four Group 1s, Bated Breath marked himself out early as a prolific source of high-class winners, his first three crops including the likes of G2 Rockfel S. and G3 Albany S. winner Daahyeh (GB), G2 Railway S. winner Beckford (Ire), G2 Dahlia S. and G3 Prix Minerve S. winner Worth Waiting (GB) and G2 Boomerang S. and G3 Jersey S. scorer Space Traveller (Ire). The bay has continued to build on those results, and in 2020 notched his first Group 1 winner in the GI Matriarch S. victress Viadera (GB). Bated Breath's juveniles had another outstanding year, too, in 2020, highlighted by Makaloun (GB) winning the G3 Prix de Conde and Cairn Gorm (GB) taking the G3 Prix de Conde. His winners to runners ratio is 60.2%, and the crop bred after his first successful season with 3-year-olds are three themselves in 2021. His yearlings are providing a return for their breeders and pinhookers, too: 53 sold at auction last year realized an average of €50,018/£44,162 that was 4.4x their £10,000 covering fee.
Grey Cup Contenders 2017
The 17-year-old Holy Roman Emperor (Ire) has carved out a truly remarkable stud career that has seen him sire Group 1 winners all across the world and across a great variety of trips. His 13 top-level scorers range from Guineas winners Homecoming Queen (Ire) and Romanised (Ire) to G1 Australian and New Zealand Derby scorer Mongolian Khan (NZ) to G1 Oakleigh Plate victress Sheidel (Aus) and GI Santa Anita Sprint Championship winner Rich Tapestry (Ire). They can be fast and precocious-like he was as a G1 Phoenix S. and G1 Jean-Luc Lagardere S. winner-but also have plenty of scope to train on. Holy Roman Emperor sires stakes winners at a rate of 6.1% of his starters (he averages 8 stakes winners per crop), and winners at 66.2%. He is still producing the goods and is this year available for the second-lowest price he has ever commanded.
Below 10,000
2017 Contenders Basketball
At last we deviate away from the Danzig sireline as we land on Raven's Pass. The G1 Queen Elizabeth II S. and GI Breeders' Cup Classic-winning son of Elusive Quality has long had his books restricted at Kildangan Stud-his crops of racing age average 57 foals apiece–but he will certainly have his admirers; he is currently turning out stakes winners at a rate of 8.3% of his runners, and winners at 62.6%. His 2-year-olds of 2021 were bred off the back of his career-best season in 2017 when he provided 12 stakes winners, four of which were group winners including the G3 Prix Imprudence scorer and G1 Prix Rothschild second Via Ravenna (Ire). The chestnut has supplied three Group 1 winners: the G1 Sprinters S. winner Tower Of London, who was also a Group 2-winning 2-year-old on the competitive JRA circuit; G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere winner Royal Marine (Ire) and in 2020 the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 victor Matternhorn (Ire). Raven's Pass is available for four figures for the first time in 2021: he stands at Kildangan Stud for €7,500.
2017 Grey Cup Tickets
Our second selection in this price bracket also resides in Co. Kildare: Rathasker Stud's elder statesman Clodovil (Ire). The 21-year-old Clodovil is the sire of 25 stakes winners and, remarkably, had one of his finest years yet in 2021 with six black-type winners headed by his third Group 1 winner, the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac and Prix Francois Boutin victress Tiger Tanaka (Ire). In fact, 2020 was a notable year for Clodovil's juveniles, he having also sired the G3 Molecomb S. winner Steel Bull (Ire). Clodovil is siring black-type winners/runners at a rate of 4.6%, and winners at a rate of 65.2%; those are pretty attractive numbers for a €5,000 fee-like Raven's Pass, Clodovil is at his lowest-ever fee. It is worth noting that Clodovil's triple group-winning son Gregorian (Ire) is also available at Rathasker at the same fee, and he has gotten off to a promising start with five stakes winners from his first three crops to race, including last year's G2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte winner Plainchant (Fr) and G3 Summer Fillies' S. victress Queen Jo Jo (GB).